Predictions
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The Predictions Page
Predictions updated roughly weekly by rkolter from Spring Peak (highest point) to Fall Trough (lowest point).
Definitions
Depth Based Prediction - this is a prediction that is based on the declining remaining depth in Lake Lanier - either from the current elevation to the deadpool, or from the current elevation to the bottom of Lake Lanier.
Volume Based Prediction - this is a prediction that is based on the declining volume of water remaining in Lake Lanier - either the estimated amount of water in the conservation pool (that water above the deadpool) or the estimated amount of water left in Lake Lanier.
Deadpool Predictions - These are predictions of when the water level in Lake Lanier will reach the deadpool stage - 1035 feet above sea level. This is the point at which most power generation at Buford Dam will stop, and previously where people believed water would have to be pumped over the dam. We now know that the water is pulled from the bottom of the dam, and so these predictors are only vaguely useful.
Total Volume Predictions - These are predictions of when Lake Lanier will run out of water, which will happen at aproximately 919 feet above sea level.
Low Depth Predictions - These are predictions for when Lanier will reach the low point of the previous year.
Deadpool Predictions
- Deadpool Elevation Predictor (depth based) - assumes that the average depth loss calculated as of that date will be maintained indefinitely.
- Deadpool Volume Predictor (volume based) - divides the estimated remaining volume of the conservation pool by the average volume loss as of this date, to determine how many days remain until we reach the deadpool.
- Lanier Seasonal Predictor - based on this tool (depth based) by Lawrence Freil (lf61 on the forums), uses a seasonal variation variable and takes into account surface area loss. It uses the average depth loss calculated as of that date, along with these variables, to determine the date the deadpool will be reached.
Total Volume Predictions
- Deadpool Volume Predictor (volume based) - divides the estimated remaining volume of Lake Lanier by the average volume loss as of this date, to determine how many days remain until we empty the lake.
- Lanier Seasonal Predictor - based on this tool (depth based) by Lawrence Freil (lf61 on the forums), uses a seasonal variation variable and takes into account surface area loss. It uses the average depth loss calculated as of that date, along with these variables, to determine the date we will empty the lake on.
Low Depth Predictions
- Low Depth Predictor - assumes that the calculated average depth loss will be maintained indefinitely, and divides the difference between the current depth and last year's low depth by that loss.
Current Predictions
06-30-2008
June Total Loss: 1.38 feet of depth; 44,000 foot-acres of storage
- Loss: 0.05 feet lost (each 0.01 foot is 0.12 inches).
- Volume Loss: 1 (1000's of acre-feet of water).
Averages
- Depth Loss since 06-01-2008: 0.046 feet lost/day
- Volume Loss since 06-01-2008: 1.47 (1000's of acre-feet)/day
Deadpool Predictions
Deadpool Elevation predictor: 463 days remain (10-06-2009).
Deadpool Volume Predictor: 437 days remain (09-09-2009).
Total Volume Predictions
Total Volume Predictor: 983 days of water remain in the lake.
Other Predictions
Low Depth Predictor: 5.49 feet to go (119 days to go)
--Rkolter 12:54, 7 May 2008 (CDT)
Previous Predictions
(none at this time for 2008)
